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How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences. 

Although immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), such as anti–programmed cell death protein–1 (PD-1), can deliver durable antitumor effects, most patients with cancer fail to respond. Recent studies suggest that ICI efficacy correlates with a higher load of tumor-specific neoantigens and development of vitiligo in patients with melanoma. Here, we report that patients with low melanoma neoantigen burdens who responded to ICI had tumors with higher expression of pigmentation-related genes. Moreover, expansion of peripheral blood CD8⁺T cell populations specific for melanocyte antigens was observed only in patients who responded to anti–PD-1 therapy, suggesting that ICI can promote breakdown of tolerance toward tumor-lineage self-antigens. In a mouse model of poorly immunogenic melanomas, spreading of epitope recognition toward wild-type melanocyte antigens was associated with markedly improved anti–PD-1 efficacy in two independent approaches: introduction of neoantigens by ultraviolet (UV) B radiation mutagenesis or the therapeutic combination of ablative fractional photothermolysis plus imiquimod. Complete responses against UV mutation-bearing tumors after anti–PD-1 resulted in protection from subsequent engraftment of melanomas lacking any shared neoantigens, as well as pancreatic adenocarcinomas forcibly overexpressing melanocyte-lineage antigens. Our data demonstrate that somatic mutations are sufficient to provoke strong antitumor responses after checkpoint blockade, but long-term responses are not restricted to these putative neoantigens. Epitope spreading toward T cell recognition of wild-type tumor-lineage self-antigens represents a common pathway for successful response to ICI, which can be evoked in neoantigen-deficient tumors by combination therapy with ablative fractional photothermolysis and imiquimod.